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Techland At the intersection of business and technology 2008-12-12T01:30:11Z WordPress.com http://techland.blogs.fortune.cnn.com/feed/atom/ yiwyn http:// Nintendo Wii officially recession-proof http://techland.blogs.fortune.cnn.com/?p=2580 2008-12-12T01:30:11Z 2008-12-11T23:43:56Z The Wii Fit game is one of Nintendo’s biggest sellers with 697,000 sold in the U.S. in November. Courtesy of Nintendo By Yi-Wyn Yen Nintendo seems to have bucked the recession. The Japanese video game manufacturer has doubled November sales of the Wii in the U.S. from a year ago, according to NPD’s latest release on gaming sales. The demand [...]


Wii Fit
The Wii Fit game is one of Nintendo’s biggest sellers with 697,000 sold in the U.S. in November. Courtesy of Nintendo

By Yi-Wyn Yen

Nintendo seems to have bucked the recession. The Japanese video game manufacturer has doubled November sales of the Wii in the U.S. from a year ago, according to NPD’s latest release on gaming sales.

The demand for the Wii remains strong since the game console’s debut two years ago. The company sold a record 2 million Wiis last month, higher than the previous 23 months. Nintendo (NTDOY) has significantly increased shipments of the red-hot Wii for this holiday season after dealing with a shortage last year. Last November Nintendo sold 981,000 Wiis.

Analysts were taken by surprise by how well the $249 console has performed in a flagging economy. “Two million? You sure? This is mind-boggling,” said Michael Pachter, a top industry analyst for Wedbush Morgan Securities. Pachter had predicted sales of 1.4 million Wiis. “At least Nintendo is meeting demand.”

That’s something the company didn’t manage to do last year, when it underestimated the craze for its consoles. Nintendo had to offer IOUs for the Wii last December and ran out of the DS, its handheld console, before Christmas. This time around, Nintendo increased its holiday inventory for the Wii by 50% and 10% for the DS for the shopping season. November sales for the touchscreen DS, which launched four years ago, tripled to 1.6 million from October ‘08 sales, according to NPD.

The NPD numbers also looked strong for the Xbox 360 (MSFT). A recent price reduction to $199 for its entry-level version, exclusive titles like Gears of War 2 and Fable 2, and a major software upgrade moved 836,000 Xbox consoles in November. Gears of War 2 was the top seller for games with 1.6 million copies sold.

Sony (SNE) is struggling to pick up steam with the PlayStation 3, which remains the priciest of the three console makers. Sony sold 378,000 units of the PS3. The company released Home, its sophisticated virtual reality world, on Thursday to attract more gamers to the PlayStation platform.

Reports that consumers are drastically cutting back on spending hasn’t stopped nearly 15 million people in the U.S. who have bought a DS or Wii this year. “The consumer is voting with their wallets and pocketbooks,” said Nintendo of America president Reggie Fils-Aime. “That the Wii and DS represent the best entertainment value in the marketplace explains why these strong sales are happening.”

Pachter says it’s because people are now choosing a Wii over a latte. “There’s a solid middle class that’s going to make substitutions to buy games. Now it’s buy a Wii and don’t eat out for a month, or don’t take that ski trip,” he said. “Or cut out Starbucks.”

2 yiwyn http:// Kosmix searches for a new way around Google http://techland.blogs.fortune.cnn.com/?p=2536 2008-12-09T20:41:19Z 2008-12-09T19:12:05Z By Yi-Wyn Yen These days, getting a large handout from venture capitalists is rare. It’s even tougher when your startup needs a lot of cash to compete with Google. Kosmix, however, has defied the odds. In late October, the plucky startup raised $20 million, led by Fortune’s parent company Time Warner (TWX), by assuring investors that Google [...]


kosmix11By Yi-Wyn Yen

These days, getting a large handout from venture capitalists is rare. It’s even tougher when your startup needs a lot of cash to compete with Google.

Kosmix, however, has defied the odds. In late October, the plucky startup raised $20 million, led by Fortune’s parent company Time Warner (TWX), by assuring investors that Google is not the only way to search on the Web. Kosmix says it takes a new approach to searching by categorizing everything by broad topics for those times when you don’t know exactly what you’re looking for.

“This reflects the fact that Kosmix has a unique technology that’s working well,” said Jonathan Miller, the former chief executive of AOL who is on Kosmix’s board. “No question it’s a difficult period to raise significant amounts of money in a late-stage round.”

A powerhouse of investors are banking on a future where search will evolve beyond typing in specific keyword terms on Google. Former Motorola CEO Ed Zander, who launched the popular Razr mobile phone, recently joined as a private investor and advisor to the company. The Mountain View-based startup, which has raised a total of $55 million in three years, is also backed by Amazon (AMZN) cofounder Jeff Bezos and Legg Mason fund manager Bill Miller.

Miller recently made noise for reportedly raising money from private investors to buy Yahoo (YHOO). Miller, a one-time Yahoo board nominee, refused to talk about Yahoo. He discussed the need for companies like Kosmix to take search to a new level in a way that Google (GOOG) does not. As CEO at AOL, Miller had tried to acquire Kosmix, cofounded by veteran entrepreneurs Venky Harinarayan and Anand Rajaraman. “How do you create breadth and depth in content pages and make it a satisfying user experience is a big and hard problem,” Miller said. “Kosmix has firmly established the lead in how this is going to happen.”

Take the phrase Mount Everest as a topic. Without more search keywords, Google broadly targets what you may be looking for. Google’s first three links include an empty graphics box from Google Maps, a Wikipedia entry, and a well-regarded news site for mountain climbers. The same topic on Kosmix returns a rich summary from Web 2.0 sources. Kosmix includes a short paragraph from Wikipedia along with photos from Flickr, videos from YouTube and video search engine Truveo, forum posts from trekkers seeking climbing partners to Everest, and top mountaineers who’ve climbed Everest.

Rajaraman insists his startup is not another search engine trying to take on the search giant. Google’s competitors – from tiny startup Cuil to software maven Microsoft (MSFT) – are struggling to make a dent in Google’s growing dominance in search despite spending billions. The approach, Rajaraman says, is to deliver relevant results with blogs, videos, pictures and news on a single page.

“We consider ourselves an explore engine. When you don’t know what’s interesting or know enough about a topic, you come to us. We’ve built algorithms based on topics that lead to a very different end point,” he said. “Google’s algorithms are about finding the best Web pages out there. It’s really, really hard to mess with that.”

1 yiwyn http:// Report: Former AOL chief wants to buy Yahoo http://fortunetechland.wordpress.com/?p=2525 2008-12-02T22:34:45Z 2008-12-02T21:33:42Z By Yi-Wyn Yen Yahoo’s fate is becoming more convoluted every day. Just two days after the Times of London reported that talks between Microsoft and Yahoo were back on, the the Wall Street Journal says former AOL chief executive Jonathan Miller is trying to raise money from private equity and sovereign wealth investors to buy [...]


By Yi-Wyn Yen

Yahoo’s fate is becoming more convoluted every day. Just two days after the Times of London reported that talks between Microsoft and Yahoo were back on, the the Wall Street Journal says former AOL chief executive Jonathan Miller is trying to raise money from private equity and sovereign wealth investors to buy the struggling Internet company.

Shares of Yahoo (YHOO) spiked 11% to $12.50 in mid-day trading on the news that Miller wants to raise between $28 billion to $30 billion to buy the company at $20-$22 a share.

Calls to Miller’s office were not returned.

Some are skeptical that Miller will be able to succeed. Wrote Standard & Poor’s Internet analyst Scott Kessler in a note, “We think YHOO is attractively valued, but that Miller would have difficulty raising this amount of capital, given the state of the global economy, of capital markets, and of YHOO itself.”

Miller has close ties with Yahoo and activist investor Carl Icahn. Miller was nominated to Yahoo’s board last August as part of a settlement which gave Icahn three seats. However, Miller withdrew because former employer Time Warner (TWX) (which also owns Fortune) would not waive a non-compete clause. Miller, who runs venture firm Velocity Interactive Group, was a consultant to Microsoft (MSFT) and Yahoo during their negotiations earlier this year.

Last week Icahn doubled down on Yahoo by spending $67 million for another 6.8 million shares. The corporate raider’s move fueled speculation that a search deal with Microsoft was inevitable. Icahn has lost roughly $1 billion since buying 69 million Yahoo shares at $25 a pop.

0 smoritz http:// Phone forecast calls for sales decline in 2009 http://fortunetechland.wordpress.com/?p=2517 2008-11-25T21:04:02Z 2008-11-25T21:04:02Z By Scott Moritz With clouds of economic gloom darkening the tech horizon, mobile phone sales – a former bright spot in the gadget world – look to be slowing. Tech buyers went away early this fall, and as recession fears intensified, orders have continued to dry up. There have been a number of ominous signs. First Cisco (CSCO) slashed [...]


By Scott Moritz

With clouds of economic gloom darkening the tech horizon, mobile phone sales – a former bright spot in the gadget world – look to be slowing.

Tech buyers went away early this fall, and as recession fears intensified, orders have continued to dry up.

There have been a number of ominous signs. First Cisco (CSCO) slashed its outlook and froze hiring. Then Wall Street analysts slashed Google’s (GOOG) search ad sales estimates, predicting the first ever drop off in the company’s growth rate.

Now, market analysts at Gartner have peered ahead into future and declared cell phone sales will likely slow from 2008 levels by 1% to 4%. This would be the first year-over-year slowdown since 2001.

“It is too early to say how long the economic climate will impact the devices market, but we expect market conditions to remain challenging through at least the first half of 2009,” Gartner analyst Carolina Milanesi said in a statement Tuesday.

A low single digit drop in sales certainly isn’t a steep fall and hardly a surprise in light of recent downward adjustments from wireless phone giants Nokia (NOK) and Samsung. But no growth in 2009 would be a major milepost given how newer markets like Brazil, Russia and Asia have been providing plenty of worldwide demand. And in mature markets like Europe and the U.S., smartphone sales are surging, fueled by touchscreens like Apple’s iPhone and Research in Motion’s new BlackBerry Storm.

Gartner now predicts mobile phone sales will hit a growth rate of 8% this year, down from the 15% level in 2007.

0 smoritz http:// Hewlett-Packard solid, Corning shattered http://fortunetechland.wordpress.com/?p=2484 2008-11-18T16:04:08Z 2008-11-18T15:06:42Z By Scott Moritz It was a tale of two techs Tuesday. Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) surprised Wall Street on Tuesday with a fourth-quarter earnings report that beat analysts’ profit and sales targets. HP shares soared nearly 14% in early trading. Meanwhile, glass maker Corning (GLW) warned of a sales shortfall in the current quarter as demand for its flat-screen TV and computer panels drops faster than anticipated. [...]


By Scott Moritz

It was a tale of two techs Tuesday. Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) surprised Wall Street on Tuesday with a fourth-quarter earnings report that beat analysts’ profit and sales targets. HP shares soared nearly 14% in early trading.

Meanwhile, glass maker Corning (GLW) warned of a sales shortfall in the current quarter as demand for its flat-screen TV and computer panels drops faster than anticipated. Shares fell nearly 12%.

HP posted preliminary adjusted earnings of $1.03 a share, which compares with 84 cents in the year-ago quarter and beats analysts estimates by 3 cents. Sales for the quarter ended Oct. 31 were $33.6 billion, an 19% improvement from revenues of $28.3 billion in the same quarter last year. Analysts were looking for sales of $33 billion, according to Thomson First Call.

The recent acquisition of IT service shop EDS so far has helped HP dodge the full impact of the impending recession. “Our ability to execute in a challenging marketplace differentiates HP, enabling it to increase share, expand earnings and emerge from the current economic environment as a stronger force,” CEO Mark Hurd said in a statement.

Looking ahead, HP predicts pro forma profit of about 94 cents a share on sales of $32.25 billion in the first quarter ending in January. Analysts expected adjusted earnings of 93 cents a share on $33.7 billion in sales. HP says it will release its October quarter earnings Nov. 24.

Corning, however, continues to struggle with order cuts as flat-panels and big-screen TV inventories pile up. The company, the largest maker of liquid crystal display screens for televisions and computers, says fourth-quarter sales will fall below its guidance of $1.1 billion to $1.2 billion. It warned that profits will be at the low end or below its prior guidance of $0.20 to $0.28 a share. Corning did not offer revised financial targets.

9 yiwyn http:// The Xbox 360’s holiday makeover http://fortunetechland.wordpress.com/?p=2455 2008-11-18T05:29:13Z 2008-11-18T05:02:31Z Xbox 360 gets an image makeover to compete with the Wii. Image: Microsoft By Yi-Wyn Yen The Xbox 360 is getting a major software update designed to transform it into a multimedia machine. Starting Wednesday, all Xbox 360 owners will be required to update their gaming consoles so that they can watch movies in high-definition, stream TV shows [...]


Xbox Experience
Xbox 360 gets an image makeover to compete with the Wii. Image: Microsoft

By Yi-Wyn Yen

The Xbox 360 is getting a major software update designed to transform it into a multimedia machine.

Starting Wednesday, all Xbox 360 owners will be required to update their gaming consoles so that they can watch movies in high-definition, stream TV shows and movies from Netflix (NFLX) and navigate categories like games, photos, and videos through a simplified dashboard populated with cutesy avatars.

Microsoft (MSFT) is counting on the Xbox makeover to not only drive console sales during a grim holiday-spending season but to broaden its appeal to casual gamers. In a statement, Microsoft hailed the move as “a new dawn in home entertainment,” going so far as to compare the Xbox Experience to the dawn of color television.

The company has been trying for years to brand the Xbox as the digital entertainment hub for the living room. Microsoft executive Shane Kim bragged that through the improved Xbox, the company is “building the world’s largest social and entertainment network” that connects to televisions. The Xbox is now referred to as the “New Xbox Experience.”

Some analysts argue that a recent price cut, not the Xbox Experience, is the console’s major appeal. Microsoft reduced its entry-level Xbox by $80 in early September to $199 and saw U.S. sales rise 33% in October, according to market researcher NPD. The Xbox Experience “is a marginal improvement,” said Todd Greenwald, a senior gaming analyst with Signal Hill. “I think if people are at Target and see an Xbox on a store shelf, they may see the Xbox Experience as a nice feature, but the price point is a much bigger driver.”

Both Xbox and Sony’s PlayStation 3 (SNE) are trying to make inroads to compete with Nintendo’s top-selling Wii. In October, Microsoft sold 391,000 Xboxes in the U.S. while Sony sold 190,000 PS3s. But Nintendo (NTDOY) outsold both gaming consoles by moving 803,000 Wiis, according to NPD.

Xbox Experience, which will offer more than 12,000 movie titles to rent from MGM, Paramount Pictures and Warner Bros., is part of Microsoft’s ongoing efforts to appeal beyond the hardcore gamer market.

Sony is also taking the multimedia approach. The PS3, which lets consumers play Blu-ray discs, is currently building a sophisticated virtual reality world called Home to make gaming a more social experience. Said Susan Panico, senior director of the PlayStation Network, “Our goal from Day 1 is to be an entertainment network. It’s about original programming and videos, and now we’ll bring Home to the PlayStation network.”

Greenwald says new software features Xbox and PS3 aren’t enough to take down the Wii. “I don’t think the Wii is successful because of the Mii avatars. With the Wii, you just pick up a motion-controlled wand and play. You don’t have to learn a controller and all its functions,” Greenwald said.

Microsoft’s Kim says it’s not trying to out-Wii the Wii, but noted the 360 can compete with Nintendo on price. The low-end version of the Xbox is $50 cheaper than the Wii, a point that Kim stresses. “We feel great about having the lowest price for a console, and that will be a big advantage for the holiday season,” he said. “When consumers are looking to buy a console for their kid this holiday, they will see that we’re at $200. Hey, $200 is $200.”

45 yiwyn http:// Yahoo CEO Jerry Yang to step down http://fortunetechland.wordpress.com/?p=2462 2008-11-18T04:43:24Z 2008-11-18T01:47:52Z By Yi-Wyn Yen At the Web 2.0 Summit two weeks ago, Yahoo CEO Jerry Yang was asked if he was the right guy to lead the battered Internet portal. Yang dodged the question by defending his passion for the company he co-founded 13 years ago. “I didn’t make the decision of being the CEO lightly,” he [...]


By Yi-Wyn Yen

At the Web 2.0 Summit two weeks ago, Yahoo CEO Jerry Yang was asked if he was the right guy to lead the battered Internet portal. Yang dodged the question by defending his passion for the company he co-founded 13 years ago. “I didn’t make the decision of being the CEO lightly,” he said. “I wanted to make a change at Yahoo that I believe I can make….That’s a dream that I felt I could achieve by being CEO and that’s still the dream today.”

That dream came to an end Monday when Yahoo announced that Yang, 40, will step down as CEO and return to his former role as “Chief Yahoo.” The company’s board said it has hired headhunter Heidrick & Struggles to find a replacement.

Yang has come under fire for his inability to turnaround the company in his past 17 months as CEO. During his short tenure, Yahoo (YHOO) has had two major rounds of layoffs and has seen its search market share shrink significantly while a series of reorganizations led to the departure of senior executives. Yang was heavily criticized by Wall Street and shareholders for failing to reach an agreement to sell the company to Microsoft (MSFT). But the final straw for Yang came when Google (GOOG) pulled out of a controversial ad agreement earlier this month that would have boosted Yahoo’s revenues by hundreds of millions of dollars.

“When the board asked me to become CEO and lead the transformation of the company, I did so because it was important to re-envision the business for a different era to drive more effective growth,” said Yang in a statement. “Having set Yahoo! on a new, more open path, the time is right for me to transition the CEO role and our global talent to a new leader. I will continue to focus on global strategy and to do everything I can to help Yahoo realize its full potential and enhance its leading culture of technology and product excellence and innovation.”

When Yang took over, he was widely viewed as the right choice to replace Terry Semel, the previous CEO from Hollywood who spent six years molding Yahoo into a media company. Yang promised change in the first 100 days as CEO, declaring there would be “no sacred cows.” But 100 days came and went. So did the next 400 days. Frustrated investors have seen Yahoo’s shares drop 62% in value since Yang took over in mid-June 2007. While Semel never had Yang’s geek cred, he did manage to drive Yahoo’s stock price up to an eight-year peak of $43.21 in January 2006. Yahoo’s shares closed at $10.63 on Monday.

Yang has admitted his legacy may forever linked to the debacle with the Microsoft takeover. Yahoo’s board and management team quickly turned down Microsoft’s original offer to acquire Yahoo for $31-a-share in February. The two parties spent six months trying to negotiate a deal. “As a CEO, my job is to find the right path for Yahoo,” Yang said at the Web 2.0 conference. Not getting the deal done “is something that I’ll be labeled with.”

46 smoritz http:// Mark Cuban faces insider trading charges http://fortunetechland.wordpress.com/?p=2444 2008-11-17T20:25:29Z 2008-11-17T20:25:29Z By Scott Moritz U.S. regulators on Monday charged Dallas Maverick owner and outspoken blogger Mark Cuban with using confidential information in 2004 to sell his stake in Mamma.com, a Montreal search engine now known as Copernic (CNIC). His sale of all 600,000 shares helped Cuban avoid a 10% dive in the stock, or about $750,000 in losses, the government contends. The Securities [...]


By Scott Moritz

U.S. regulators on Monday charged Dallas Maverick owner and outspoken blogger Mark Cuban with using confidential information in 2004 to sell his stake in Mamma.com, a Montreal search engine now known as Copernic (CNIC). His sale of all 600,000 shares helped Cuban avoid a 10% dive in the stock, or about $750,000 in losses, the government contends.

The Securities and Exchange Commission filed a civil lawsuit against Cuban on Monday. No criminal charges were filed.

Cuban, the biggest shareholder in Mamma.com, was allegedly angered by plans for a private sale of discounted Mamma.com stock, according to the lawsuit filed in U.S. District Court for the Northern District of Texas.

Mamma’s CEO had contacted Cuban to see if he was interested in participating in the so-called PIPE, or private investment in public equity, according to the SEC complaint. Selling the stock at a discount effectively dilutes the stakes held by existing shareholders. Cuban allegedly responded: ”Well, now I’m screwed. I can’t sell,” according to information provided by the Mamma CEO to regulators.

But sell he did, according to the SEC. One minute after hearing the full details of the private investment offer for Mamma.com shares, Cuban allegedly called his Dallas broker and said: “Sell what you can tonight and just get me out the next day.”

The SEC wants Cuban to pay back the $750,000 he avoided in losses after Mamma.com’s shares fell as well as a potential fine of $2.25 million.

Cuban issued a statement Monday saying the charges had no merit. “The government’s claims are false and they will be proven to be so,” he said.

Cuban’s net worth has been estimated to be $2.8 billion. His big jackpot came in 1999 when he sold Broadcast.com to Yahoo (YHOO) for nearly $6 billion, one of the largest cash-outs of the Internet boom.

As the owner of the Mavericks and Internet soapbox Blog Maverick, Cuban has displayed a fiery temperament at times. After a few shouting matches with Mavericks head coach Avery Johnson earlier this year, Cuban fired Johnson, the most successful coach in franchise history, at the end of the NBA season in April.

If skirting securities laws to avoid losing a relatively insignificant amount of money sounds strange, it isn’t, says Scott Friestad, deputy director of enforcement for the SEC.

“It’s not uncommon that the amount of the transaction is not correlated to a person’s financial wherewithal,” said Friestad. “We’ve seen sales worth $15,000 by people with $1 million-a-year salaries.”

4 mlevram Silicon Valley celebrates do-gooders http://fortunetechland.wordpress.com/?p=2421 2008-11-13T16:13:59Z 2008-11-13T16:13:59Z By Michal Lev-Ram SAN JOSE – On the same day that Intel (INTC) slashed more than $1 billion from its sales forecast and more analysts cut sales estimates for Google (GOOG), Silicon Valley luminaries momentarily put the downturn aside and celebrated a happier cause — using technology to benefit the world. Nearly 1,500 guests on Wednesday night attended the annual Tech [...]


By Michal Lev-Ram

SAN JOSE – On the same day that Intel (INTC) slashed more than $1 billion from its sales forecast and more analysts cut sales estimates for Google (GOOG), Silicon Valley luminaries momentarily put the downturn aside and celebrated a happier cause — using technology to benefit the world.

Nearly 1,500 guests on Wednesday night attended the annual Tech Awards, which recognize innovations used to alleviate poverty around the world. ”Tonight is a reminder of all the things that are going right,” said Mike Splinter, CEO of Applied Materials (AMAT), a Tech Awards sponsor. The speech came just hours after the chip equipment maker announced earlier Wednesday that it will cut nearly 2,000 jobs.

The international awards program honored 25 organizations, five of which received a $50,000 cash prize, including Digital StudyHall, an India-based organization that was recognized for bringing instructional DVDs to underpriveledged classrooms.

Other award recipients included the Full Belly Project, a North Carolina-based non-profit that has developed a $50 nut sheller that can shell 125 pounds of peanuts per hour and requires no electricity, which helps subsistence farmers in countries like Mali and Haiti.

The Portable Light Project, another Tech Award recipient, manufactures flexible solar panels that can be woven into clothing or handbags. The wearable photovoltaics harvest sunlight to charge cell phones and other devices. According to the Massachusetts-based nonprofit organization, it is already distributing its portable solar panels in countries like Mexico and South Africa.

“People who are poor are often on the move,” said Sheila Kennedy, who heads up the project. “They don’t have a roof, so you can’t put solar panels up.”

The star of the evening was Muhammad Yunus, who received the Nobel Peace Prize in 2006 for his Grameen Bank, which gives out small loans to some of the world’s poorest people. The father of the so-called microcredit movement spoke about his creative approach to financing and efforts to bring cell phones and solar power to impoverished regions. According to Yunus, his Grameen Bank has doled out more than $700,000 in housing loans (that kind of money won’t get you much in the Silicon Valley, but in Bangladesh a tin-roofed house costs just $300 to build).

Yunus said that when he initially approached banks about lending to the poor, they refused and said poor people are not credit worthy.

“The poor turned out to be more credit worthy,” said Yunus, whose Grameen Bank is self-reliant (it no longer relies on donor funds) and claims to have a loan repayment rate of more than 95% “We never had a subprime housing crisis.”

0 yiwyn http:// Microsoft gives Windows Live a Facebook facelift http://fortunetechland.wordpress.com/?p=2410 2008-11-13T17:34:45Z 2008-11-13T05:22:11Z By Yi-Wyn Yen Microsoft is trying its luck at social networking – again. After a failed attempt four years ago, Microsoft (MSFT) is ripping a page from Facebook’s playbook, introducing on Thursday new profile and photo-sharing features to its web-based Windows Live services. The software giant allows users with Windows Live Hotmail or Messenger accounts to create [...]


By Yi-Wyn Yen

Microsoft is trying its luck at social networking – again.

After a failed attempt four years ago, Microsoft (MSFT) is ripping a page from Facebook’s playbook, introducing on Thursday new profile and photo-sharing features to its web-based Windows Live services. The software giant allows users with Windows Live Hotmail or Messenger accounts to create online profiles that highlight what a person is doing through a Facebook-like newsfeed.

Microsoft hopes that giving Windows Live a new facelift will encourage more people to spend more time on its web properties. Checking e-mail or instant messaging accounts for up a third of the time people spend on the Internet, according to research firm comScore. Microsoft has 375 million Hotmail users and 325 million Messenger users worldwide. “If we can gain a whole 60 minutes per user, we would grow a whole Facebook in [time spent],” says Brian Hall, general manager for Windows Live.

Though Hall admits that Microsoft’s new strategy could shift some attention from Facebook – in which Microsoft holds a minor stake – to Windows Live, the real concern is longtime rival, Google (GOOG). The search giant already has a commanding lead in the search advertising business, and Microsoft worries about Gmail’s growing share in the e-mail market. “According to comScore, Google has a 6% share of email [in the U.S.] But they’re growing fast,” Hall said.

Like Google, Microsoft has struggled to make inroads in social networking. Four years ago, Microsoft launched Spaces, a blogging tool to build a social networking site within Windows Live. Though Microsoft added 100 million people in it first year, less than 1% of social networking users use Spaces today. “The blogging approach [to social networking] is not the right approach. People are too busy to make that investment,” Hall said.

Windows Live lets its new newsfeed feature do the heavy lifting to give people’s friends updates on what they’re up to. Microsoft has partnered with more than 50 web companies, including Amazon.com (AMZN), Twitter, Flickr,and iLike, a music discovery site. Anytime you blog on WordPress, write a restaurant review on Yelp, or watch videos on Veoh, your status is updated through your Windows Live profile.

Analysts say the new Windows Live makeover is a preview of Microsoft’s newest operating system, Windows 7. The latest version of Windows is expected to integrate tools like photo-sharing, videos, and messaging more seamless between PCs and mobile devices. “All these built-in applications with a blend of Google, Apple, and Facebook is Microsoft’s view of an integrated world,” said Rob Enderle, president of the Enderle Group. “Windows Live comes out first. This is designed for Windows 7.”

Microsoft’s had success with operating systems, but the company still struggles to make a profit from its Internet businesses. Microsoft is banking that more time spent on Windows Live will translate into more web searches on Live and more ads viewed on its portal, MSN. For its fiscal first quarter, which ended in September, Microsoft lost $480 million from its online unit. “We have to get great at the advertising business,”  Hall said.

3 smoritz http:// Google hits 3-year low on growth fears http://fortunetechland.wordpress.com/?p=2398 2008-11-11T19:39:21Z 2008-11-11T19:21:13Z By Scott Moritz What was a little fuzzy last month has become clearer of late: The sagging economy is weighing on Google (GOOG). Goldman Sachs analyst James Mitchell cited signs of weakness in search advertising – Google’s biggest moneymaker by far — in cutting his revenue growth target for the current fourth quarter from 4% to 1%. Mitchell is the second [...]


By Scott Moritz

What was a little fuzzy last month has become clearer of late: The sagging economy is weighing on Google (GOOG).

Goldman Sachs analyst James Mitchell cited signs of weakness in search advertising – Google’s biggest moneymaker by far — in cutting his revenue growth target for the current fourth quarter from 4% to 1%.

Mitchell is the second analyst this week to lower estimates for Google. On Monday Barclays analyst Doug Anmuth called for fourth-quarter sales to be flat with third quarter’s $4.05 billion. If so, it would be the first time in Google’s history that revenue has not grown from one quarter to the next.

The prospects of little or no growth sent Google shares to a three-year low of $300 Tuesday amid a broad market selloff. The stock has dropped 55% this year. And the news was not particularly good for the rest of the Internet sector with Yahoo (YHOO) dropping 5% to a 52-week low of $11.25.

Why the sudden chill? Google thermometer readers apparently saw a change in tone between the company’s discussions on the earnings call Oct. 16 and the comments in the quarterly filing on Nov.7.

In October, when asked on a conference call how search traffic patterns were going, CEO Eric Schmidt couldn’t draw any conclusions. “We see fluctuations and they are more complex than they may appear; some things go up, some things go down.”

By Friday, when Google filed its 10Q, the complexity had simplified in a not-so-positive way.

“The current general economic downturn will likely affect these seasonal trends, especially the increase in commercial queries that we typically experience in the fourth quarter of each year,” Google said in the filing.

In October, Google executives were partially blinded by the huge increase in search traffic as people swarmed online for news on the financial crisis after Lehman Brothers collapsed Sept. 14. But as search traffic fell back after the initial panic subsided, consumers didn’t revert to their normal behavior and spend their time searching topics like holiday electronics. Ominously for Google, the rate of click-throughs on the sponsored ads that appear to the right of search results also fell, according to some analysts. Marketers pay Google only when someone clicks on their ads.

Goldman’s Mitchell writes that a poor economy is leading to declines in paid search and he noted that the size of purchases at sites like eBay (EBAY) and Amazon (AMZN) are shrinking. Given the lack of pay off, advertisers are likely to resist price increases or even cut spending, according to Mitchell.

In other words: A not-so-happy holidays ahead for the online economy.

7 smoritz http:// Nortel cuts jobs, shakes up management http://fortunetechland.wordpress.com/?p=2378 2008-11-10T15:58:11Z 2008-11-10T15:33:15Z By Scott Moritz Nortel (NT) plans a major restructuring and another round of job cuts as demand for tech gear plunges. The Toronto networking equipment giant said Monday it would trim 1,300 jobs on top 1,200 cuts previously announced. Nortel had 32,550 employees at the end of 2007. The company also said four top executives, including its head of sales and [...]


By Scott Moritz

Nortel (NT) plans a major restructuring and another round of job cuts as demand for tech gear plunges.

The Toronto networking equipment giant said Monday it would trim 1,300 jobs on top 1,200 cuts previously announced. Nortel had 32,550 employees at the end of 2007.

The company also said four top executives, including its head of sales and its chief technology officer, would leave at year-end.

The news comes as Nortel posted third quarter earnings that met lowered targets. The company warned, however, that 2008 sales would fall 4% — at the lower end of its previous guidance of 2% to 4%.

Like other tech shops that have lowered forecasts, including Qualcomm (QCOM), Cisco (CSCO), Microsoft (MSFT) and Intel (INTC), Nortel cited a sudden slowdown in orders that started in September and has shown no signs of letting up. Corporate spending cuts, tight-fisted phone companies and a weaker consumer demand have sent the tech sector into a deep slump.

In September, Nortel slashed guidance and said it would look to sell or eliminate some business units. The news shocked investors who sent the stock down 43% in a one-day selloff Sept. 17.

In addition to plans to cut a total of 2,500 jobs, Nortel has shuffled its management. Marketing chief Lauren Flaherty, technology chief John Roese, head of global services Dietmar Wendt and head of sales Bill Nelson will leave the company at the end of the year, Nortel announced.  

For the third quarter, Nortel took a one-time charge of $3.2 billion ($2.1 billion in writedowns for tax adjustments, and $1.1 in goodwill charges) putting the net loss at $3.4 billion, or $6.85 a share. Excluding those charges, pro forma profit was 30 cents a share, well below the 8-cent adjusted profit last year but in line with analysts expectations.

Sales for the third quarter were $2.3 billion, down 15% from year-ago levels but meeting Wall Street expectations.

Looking ahead, Nortel cut its full year sales projection to about $10.5 billion or about 4% below 2007 levels. Analysts had anticipated a 4% full year slide in sales for Nortel.

4 Michael V. Copeland, Senior Writer Al Gore: Web 2.0 can help save the planet http://techland.blogs.fortune.cnn.com/?p=2372 2008-11-08T14:24:55Z 2008-11-08T02:50:24Z By Michael V. Copeland and Yi-Wyn Yen SAN FRANCISCO – Al Gore didn’t take credit for inventing the Internet at the Web 2.0 Summit Friday, but he did credit it with enabling the victory of President-elect Barack Obama and helping restore faith in the principles upon which the United States was founded. “The electrifying redemption of America’s [...]


By Michael V. Copeland and Yi-Wyn Yen

SAN FRANCISCO – Al Gore didn’t take credit for inventing the Internet at the Web 2.0 Summit Friday, but he did credit it with enabling the victory of President-elect Barack Obama and helping restore faith in the principles upon which the United States was founded.

“The electrifying redemption of America’s revolutionary declaration, that all human beings are created equal,” Gore said to a cheering crowd, “would not have been possible without the addition of the empowerment of individuals to use knowledge as a source of power that has come with the Internet.”

In a speech that ranged from the foundations of printing, computing and other disruptive technologies, to the subject of the dampening effects of television and the need to tackle climate change, Gore returned to the Internet and Web 2.0 as tools to bring about huge leaps forward in society. He highlighted the way in which people organized and spread information using web-based databases of names, numbers, and ideas to support the Obama campaign.

“What happened in the election opens up a whole new range of possibilities, Gore said. “Now is the time to really move swiftly, to seize these new possibilities and to exploit them…Web 2.0 has to have a purpose. The purpose I would urge as many of you as can take it on, is to repair our relationship with this planet and the imminent danger we face.”

“We have everything we need to save it and in the process create millions of new jobs, create energy security,” he continued. “But the only way this is going to be solved, is by addressing the democracy crisis   – a great blow was landed during the election – and taking this issue and raise it to the awareness of everyone.”

Gore advocated for  the construction of a $400 billion “smart-grid” to tap renewable energy sources like wind, geothermal and solar and bring green power. He said a smart-grid infrastructure would pay for itself within three-and-a-half years. He urged Obama to set a goal of generating all of the nation’s power from renewable sources within a decade.

35 yiwyn http:// Tesla CEO: GM couldn’t afford us now http://fortunetechland.wordpress.com/?p=2360 2008-11-07T23:54:45Z 2008-11-07T22:34:25Z The Roadster goes 0 to 60 mph in 3.9 seconds. Image: Yi-Wyn Yen By Yi-Wyn Yen SAN FRANCISCO – How much is Tesla Motors worth? Tesla CEO Elon Musk won’t say, but it’s at least too expensive for General Motors to buy. “I’m not sure they can afford Tesla right now,” he said during a 30-minute talk Friday at [...]


Tesla Roadster
The Roadster goes 0 to 60 mph in 3.9 seconds. Image: Yi-Wyn Yen

By Yi-Wyn Yen

SAN FRANCISCO – How much is Tesla Motors worth?

Tesla CEO Elon Musk won’t say, but it’s at least too expensive for General Motors to buy. “I’m not sure they can afford Tesla right now,” he said during a 30-minute talk Friday at the Web 2.0 Summit.

The South African-born entrepreneur talked candidly with host John Battelle about the failures of the auto industry and Tesla’s own troubles. Battelle had asked why GM (GM) doesn’t buy the electric car startup.

GM reported a $2.5 billion loss in the third quarter Friday and also warned that it could run out of cash soon. Said Musk, “There’s an issue with organized labor and trade and management still acts like it’s 1955. There are too many country club memberships, and [GM] management has focused on the wrong thing. “

Tesla has been plagued with its own problems. In mid-October Musk, who has helped bankroll Tesla, became its third CEO in less than a year, announced layoffs and delayed the debut of its forthcoming electric sedan, the Model S.

Musk explained why Tesla had to let go 10% of his employees last month. “Before market Armageddon occurred, the point was to raise $100 million. And we intended to get going with that in full force before the market collapsed,” he said.

The company settled for cutting costs and raising $40 million from its existing investors. Musk says he’s backing half of the $40 million round. He has already poured $55 million of his own money into the company.

Despite the tough economic climate, Musk felt confident that Tesla could have raised the $100 million. However, he said that would have meant giving up more control of the company.

Production of the Model S has been delayed six months to mid-2011. Musk says the company is churning out 10 of its Roadster sportscars a week and by early next year, will make 30 cars per week. He says Tesla will be profitable when it sells its expected lot of 1,200 Roadsters.

Said Musk, “I may be optimistic with the schedule, but I can deliver.”

10 mlevram Facebook chief: We’re hiring, not firing http://fortunetechland.wordpress.com/?p=2349 2008-11-07T01:11:40Z 2008-11-07T01:03:57Z By Michal Lev-Ram SAN FRANCISCO – Last year Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg showed up at the Web 2.0 Summit in sandals and dodged questions about Microsoft’s then-rumored $240 million investment in the company. This year, he showed up in tennis shoes and told the crowd of techies that Facebook doesn’t need any more funding, despite recent rumors [...]


By Michal Lev-Ram

SAN FRANCISCO – Last year Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg showed up at the Web 2.0 Summit in sandals and dodged questions about Microsoft’s then-rumored $240 million investment in the company.

This year, he showed up in tennis shoes and told the crowd of techies that Facebook doesn’t need any more funding, despite recent rumors that the Palo Alto-based social networking site is looking to raise another round of financing. Zuckerberg also said that instead of a hiring freeze or layoffs (which have plagued many local companies in recent weeks), Facebook is actively looking for more “really good technical people.” The company currently has about 700 employees.

Microsoft’s (MSFT) infusement of cash brought Facebook’s valuation to $15 billion late last year, shocking many in the industry. Web impresario John Battelle, who interviewed Zuckerberg on stage, asked the young CEO if he thought Microsoft is happy with the price they paid.

“The deal was about more than the investment,” said Zuckerberg, who emphasized the two companies are working together on ad placement and search functions. “I think a lot of people obsess over the price that they paid.”

Facbook says it now has over 120 million users. But despite its popularity, the site has been criticized for not having a proven revenue model. Zuckerberg said some have misunderstood his emphasis on growing the site to mean that the company doesn’t have a strategy for making money. Facebook, he noted, has several revenue strategies — including brand sponsors and ads. (Battelle added a third — Microsoft).

“They are both strong and growing quickly,” said Zuckerberg, who would only say revenues are in the “hundreds of millions.” As an example, he cited a New York Times ad that prompted more than 200,000 people to pass around an article on Barack Obama’s presidential victory.

Zuckerberg also discussed Facebook Connect, a new iteration of the company’s platform which will allow developers to create applications outside the site. But he admitted the first version, reportedly launching later this month, won’t be a direct source of new revenue.

1 smoritz http:// Qualcomm hit by the slowdown http://fortunetechland.wordpress.com/?p=2344 2008-11-06T22:19:55Z 2008-11-06T22:15:47Z By Scott Moritz Qualcomm (QCOM) joined tech’s growing crowd of downward revisionists as the slumping global economy forced the company to slash its financial targets. While the San Diego wireless chipmaker turned in a strong fiscal fourth quarter Thursday, Qualcomm like several tech giants – including Cisco (CSCO), Intel (INTC) and Apple (AAPL) – have lowered financial projections [...]


By Scott Moritz

Qualcomm (QCOM) joined tech’s growing crowd of downward revisionists as the slumping global economy forced the company to slash its financial targets.

While the San Diego wireless chipmaker turned in a strong fiscal fourth quarter Thursday, Qualcomm like several tech giants – including Cisco (CSCO), Intel (INTC) and Apple (AAPL) – have lowered financial projections as business took a nose dive this fall.

Qualcomm posted adjusted earnings of $1.06 billion or 63 cents a share, a 17% increase over the 54 cent pro forma profit in the year ago period and 3 cents above analysts estimates, according to Thomson First Call.

Sales for the company’s fourth quarter ended in September were $3.3 billion, up $1 billion or 45 % over the same period a year ago. Analysts had anticipated revenue of $2.86 billion.

Similar to Cisco, which saw strong pre-October results yet dire post-October conditions, Qualcomm pulled down its forecast for the current quarter.

“As a result of the credit crisis and the economic uncertainty, our guidance reflects slower end-market device growth for 2009 than previously anticipated,” said CEO Paul Jacobs in a statement.

Looking ahead, Qualcomm cut its December quarter adjusted earnings forecast to a range around 48 cents or 8% below year-ago levels. Sales are now expected to drop 4% on a year-over-year basis to $2.4 billion roughly flat sequentially. Analysts had been looking for earnings of 61 cents on revenue of $2.9 billion.

Qualcomm shares dropped 3% in after-hours trading after closing at $33.05 Thursday.

Qualcomm, which makes components for cell phones and licenses wireless technology, says December-quarter chip shipments will drop to 62.5 million from the 79 million level a year ago. And the company predicts the average selling price for mobile phones will fall to $205 from $211 last year.

0 yiwyn http:// Intel chief gloomy on the economy http://fortunetechland.wordpress.com/?p=2334 2008-11-06T20:35:39Z 2008-11-06T20:35:39Z By Yi-Wyn Yen SAN FRANCISCO – Intel CEO Paul Otellini, who runs the world’s largest semiconductor business, gave a sobering view of the economy to the Web 2.0 Summit crowd Thursday. If you think the recession is bad now, says the Intel (INTC) chief, a year from now will be worse.  “This is the deepest one I’ve [...]


By Yi-Wyn Yen

SAN FRANCISCO – Intel CEO Paul Otellini, who runs the world’s largest semiconductor business, gave a sobering view of the economy to the Web 2.0 Summit crowd Thursday.

If you think the recession is bad now, says the Intel (INTC) chief, a year from now will be worse.  “This is the deepest one I’ve seen in my lifetime. All the smart people that I talk to tell us the U.S. is in for a two-to-three quarter recession,” Otellini said. “Unemployment peaks lag GDP. We’ll see much larger unemployment a year from now.”

In its weekly report, the Labor Department said new claims for unemployment dropped slightly to a seasonally adjusted 481,000 for the week ending Nov. 1. But every day more job cuts are announced. In the past week alone, big tech companies like Cisco (CSCO), Electronic Arts (ERTS), Motorola (MOT), and Xerox (XRX) have announced layoffs or hiring freezes.

Otellini said he was grateful to take a break from the doom and gloom to attend the Web 2.0 conference. The Intel exec provided a 20-minute demo of forthcoming Intel products and answered questions from Web 2.0 host John Battelle.

“I like coming here,” Otellini said. “It’s a respite from watching the stock market crash every day.

Otellini stressed that tech companies need to stay focused on a post-recession strategy. “We have to not think about today’s market turbulence but what can happen as we get through this and what kind of products we can develop around the web as we break out of this cycle,” he said.

Intel is betting on high-powered mobile chips. An Intel employee showed a person taking a picture of a Chinese restaurant with a mobile gadget and then using the web to translate the Chinese characters into English. He also demonstrated how Web 2.0 applications can be used on the go. He scanned a Lego-like toy called K’nex and on the screen, a YouTube video popped up of a person constructing a K’nex model.

Those powerful mobile chips are coming in the next couple years. Next year Otellini says Intel will introduce a new smartphone processor that has the capacity of the original Centrino laptop chip. And by 2011, Intel will offer mobile power that runs as fast as desktop PCs. Otellini acknowledged that to unlock the value of these faster mobile devices requires “a first-class broadband infrastructure around the world.”

The Intel chief says he’s encouraged by growth in China. During a recent trip, Otellini said he met with government officials who told him that China’s GDP would grow 8% to 9% in 2009. “They’re putting in programs that will shift savings and encourage domestic consumption,” he said. “They”ll start buying a lot of tech stuff and putting cash back into the system.”

3 yiwyn http:// Yahoo chief defends his record http://fortunetechland.wordpress.com/?p=2315 2008-11-06T16:44:45Z 2008-11-06T04:01:32Z By Yi-Wyn Yen SAN FRANCISCO – In the past ten months, Yahoo CEO Jerry Yang has faced a hostile takeover attempt by Microsoft, shareholder lawsuits, a proxy fight led by Carl Icahn and, on Wednesday, watched a much-needed partnership with Google (GOOG) go up in flames.  Yet the embattled Yahoo chief says he has no regrets [...]


By Yi-Wyn Yen

SAN FRANCISCO – In the past ten months, Yahoo CEO Jerry Yang has faced a hostile takeover attempt by Microsoft, shareholder lawsuits, a proxy fight led by Carl Icahn and, on Wednesday, watched a much-needed partnership with Google (GOOG) go up in flames.  Yet the embattled Yahoo chief says he has no regrets that he took on the job.

“I didn’t make the decision of being the CEO lightly,” Yang told a packed crowd of 800 at the Web 2.0 Summit late Wednesday afternoon, hours after Google announced it was pulling out of an ad partnership with Yahoo to avoid a federal antitrust suit.

“I wanted to make a change at Yahoo that I believe I can make,” he said. “That’s a dream that I felt I could achieve by being CEO, and that’s still the dream today. And that’s something that gets lost underneath all these external issues.”

He added, “I don’t regret any minute of it. It might not be the most fun thing, but I feel like I only know how to operate by caring and being passionate about Yahoo.  I just feel that’s the reason that I’m here.”

Yang appeared relaxed while facing tough questions from Web 2.0 impresario John Battelle, who conducted the 45-minute interview at San Francisco’s Palace Hotel. Dressed in a purple-checkered dress shirt, Yang smiled and joked with Battelle who asked him to justify his job and why he rejected Microsoft’s offer to buy the company.

“What happened?” Battelle asked.

“Which part?” Yang said with a smile.

“Thirty-three dollars a share, Jerry. What happened?”

Since Microsoft (MSFT) and Yahoo (YHOO) ended talks in June, Yang has said that the company was willing to sell to Microsoft for the right price. He reiterated his position that he’s still willing to sell the entire company or Yahoo’s search business at the Web 2.0 Summit.

Not convinced, Battelle blamed Yang for failing to get the deal done. “You didn’t want it to happen,” Battelle said.

“I don’t have an ego,” Yang replied. “At the end of the day, we believed the deal was going to be done, and that a deal was not that far apart and they walked away…I know [the failure of the deal] is something that I’ll be labeled with.”

It was the failure of that other deal that seemed to stun Yang. After four months of negotiating with the feds, Google on Wednesday pulled out of a search ad deal that would have generated hundreds of millions of dollars in additional cash flow for Yahoo.

Yang mentioned several times that he was “disappointed” by Google’s decision. “We were working with the Department of Justice to get this deal done,” he said. “We also felt that Google clearly did not want to stay in the deal, and we were disappointed with that.”

Yang had no answer for why Google withdrew. He said, “You’d have to ask them because we are certainly disappointed.”

In a blog post, Google’s chief legal officer David Drummond referred to the deal as too “risky.” The feds threatened to sue Google and Yahoo if they went through with the ad agreement that would allow Yahoo to run some Google search ads on Yahoo’s web properties. The Justice Department believed combining the No. 1 and No. 2 search engines was anticompetitive. Yahoo signaled it was willing to go to court over the deal.

Said Yang, “I really thought the government in this case does not understand this industry. Their thinking is too narrow. I clearly don’t agree with their point of view.”

Yang stressed that the company had “no news” with regards to reviving talks with Microsoft. He also stayed mum on reported talks to buy AOL, which is owned by Fortune’s parent company Time Warner (TWX).

“Are you buying AOL,” Battelle pressed.

Yang laughed and then smiled. “I can’t talk about that. If I tell you, I’d have to kill you.”

Said Battelle, “I think I’ll take the bullet for this audience.”

15 yiwyn http:// With Google gone, will Microsoft come back to Yahoo? http://fortunetechland.wordpress.com/?p=2299 2008-11-05T21:14:52Z 2008-11-05T20:19:47Z By Yi-Wyn Yen The implosion of Yahoo’s ad partnership with Google may or may not lure Microsoft back to bid on Yahoo, but one thing is clear: Making a deal with Yahoo will be a lot less expensive that it was six months ago. Yahoo (YHOO) is back on the market after Google (GOOG) on Wednesday bailed [...]


By Yi-Wyn Yen

The implosion of Yahoo’s ad partnership with Google may or may not lure Microsoft back to bid on Yahoo, but one thing is clear: Making a deal with Yahoo will be a lot less expensive that it was six months ago.

Yahoo (YHOO) is back on the market after Google (GOOG) on Wednesday bailed on the controversial search ad agreement. Investors signaled their approval of the breakup by sending Yahoo’s shares up 5% to $14.02 in mid-day trading.

Microsoft (MSFT) had no comment on the possibility of opening up renegotiations with Yahoo. But the software giant was pleased with the Justice Department’s decision to nix the Google-Yahoo deal, which would have allowed Yahoo to run some of Google’s search ads on its Web properties.

“The Department of Justice’s finding is significant for advertisers, publishers and consumers, who voiced overwhelming concern about this illegal deal to law enforcement and policymakers,” said Brad Smith, Microsoft’s general counsel in a statement.

Microsoft may have won a victory over Google, its bitter rival, but the real loser here is Yahoo. Wrote Jefferies analyst Youssef Squali in a client note, “In our view the GOOG withdrawal is another black eye for [Yahoo CEO] Jerry Yang and Co.”

Analysts say they expect Yahoo’s best option is to go back to Microsoft for a search deal. Summed up Jefferies’ Squali, “YHOO is left with 3 options: 1) go it alone, 2) merge with AOL, or 3) do a deal with Microsoft.”

“Option #1 is not optimal,” he continued, “as shareholders would need to ride out the current recession to get paid. Also having Icahn on the board should make status quo difficult. Option #2 is possible but not to our liking since YHOO would double-down on Display (the weaker segment) with no material benefit to search. Option #3 is the most likely,in our view.”

Google’s ditching of the deal is a humiliating blow for Yahoo. Google announced in a company blog post – a blog post! – that battling the feds in court to save the Yahoo deal was too risky. Three minutes after the Google blog was published, Yahoo released a statement that the company was “disappointed that Google has elected to withdraw from the agreement rather than defend it in court.”

The Justice Department notified Google and Yahoo Wednesday that it would sue both companies if the pair went through with the ad agreement.  Wrote Google’s chief legal officer David Drummond in the blog post, “Pressing ahead risked not only a protracted legal battle but also damage to relationships with valued partners. That wouldn’t have been in the long-term interests of Google or our users.”

Yahoo scrambled to keep the deal afloat. Earlier this week, Yahoo proposed a drastically-scaled version to Google and the government. Yahoo offered to reduce the terms from ten years to two years and only run a quarter of Google’s search ads on Yahoo’s sites.

Analyst Jeffrey Lindsay with Bernstein Research argues that Yahoo was desperate to keep the Google deal going to stay independent. He also says that without the extra cash generated from Google, Yahoo’s attempts to buy Time Warner’s AOL (TWX) business outright is unlikely. Reports have suggested that Time Warner, Fortune’s parent company, would be willing to sell AOL for $6 billion to $8 billion. Lindsay says that at most, Yahoo can only pay between $4 billion to $4.5 billion without diluting its own shares. “Without the Google deal, Yahoo can’t afford to buy AOL,” Lindsay said.

Yahoo brushes off claims that the Google deal is a major loss to the company. Yahoo had originally said that it could make as much as $800 million in annual revenue from the deal. But in its release Wednesday, the company argues that the deal was only “incremental” to its turnaround strategy. “The fundamental building blocks of a stronger Yahoo in both sponsored and algorithmic search were put in place independent of the agreement,” the company said in its statement.

Yahoo struck the search deal with Google four months ago after it ended talks with Microsoft. The move was widely seen as a way for Yahoo to appease shareholders, who were upset that Yahoo turned down Microsoft’s $33-per-share bid. Microsoft had also offered to buy just Yahoo’s search business for a reported $2 billion in June.

Microsoft is still struggling to make a dent with Google’s dominance in paid search advertising. Analysts say that’s all the more reason for Microsoft to come back. “We can’t see why Microsoft wants Yahoo any less than it did nearly a year ago,” Bernstein’s Lindsay said. “All the same reasons still hold true for why Microsoft needs Yahoo. And now they can offer considerably less.”

4 smoritz http:// Yahoo back in the game http://fortunetechland.wordpress.com/?p=2295 2008-11-05T17:55:51Z 2008-11-05T17:55:51Z By Scott Moritz Yahoo (YHOO) moves back to the deal market as its controversial advertising partnership with Google (GOOG) is now dead. As Fortune’s Legal Pad blogger Roger Parloff outlined last month, the legal footing was never very solid as the No.1 and No.2 Internet advertisers explored plans to work together on search advertising efforts. The plan was first [...]


By Scott Moritz

Yahoo (YHOO) moves back to the deal market as its controversial advertising partnership with Google (GOOG) is now dead.

As Fortune’s Legal Pad blogger Roger Parloff outlined last month, the legal footing was never very solid as the No.1 and No.2 Internet advertisers explored plans to work together on search advertising efforts.

The plan was first introduced in June as Yahoo was trying to fend off an unsolicited takeover bid from Microsoft (MSFT). Yahoo stubbornly resisted Microsoft’s early offers, including a $33-a-share bid in May. Microsoft then walked away and in July, activist investors like Carl Icahn started pushing for a shakeup of the Yahoo board and a more deal-friendly line up.

Yahoo shares, which had fallen to a five-year low of $11.25 last month, surge up 9% on Wednesday after news that the Google partnership was killed.

Investors apparently like Yahoo’s options a lot better without the antitrust battle that seemed to be looming with its Google ad plan. Microsoft and Time Warner’s (TWX) AOL unit – Time Warner is the parent of Fortune and CNNMoney – are among the potential deal partners.

On a conference call with analysts, Time Warner executives said that the news was positive for AOL. “The opportunity remains open for this business to rebuild itself,” the executives said.

4

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